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The Great Reversal

Monday, 10 November 2025 16:01

Summary

The International Olympic Committee (IOC) is reportedly preparing a sweeping policy reversal that would introduce a blanket ban on transgender women and athletes with Differences of Sex Development (DSD) from competing in the female category at future Games. This move, expected to be announced as early as 2026, marks a dramatic shift away from the IOC’s 2021 Framework, which prioritised inclusion and non-discrimination. The proposed ban follows a scientific review presented to IOC members, which concluded that 'permanent physical advantages' from male puberty remain even after hormone suppression, a finding that is highly contested within the scientific community. The debate pits the principle of fairness for cisgender women against the human rights and inclusion of transgender athletes, a conflict that has been amplified by high-profile controversies like the one involving boxer Imane Khelif at the Paris 2024 Olympics. The decision aligns the IOC with stricter policies already adopted by World Athletics and World Aquatics, and comes amid significant political pressure, particularly from the United States.

The Impending Policy Shift

The International Olympic Committee (IOC) is reportedly moving towards a blanket ban on transgender women from competing in the female category at the Olympic Games . This policy shift is also expected to include athletes with Differences of Sex Development (DSD) . The new rules are anticipated to be announced ahead of the Milan-Cortina 2026 Winter Olympics or in time for the 2028 Los Angeles Summer Olympics . If implemented, the ban would represent a significant and dramatic reversal of the IOC’s previous, more inclusive guidelines . The IOC’s new President, Kirsty Coventry, a former Olympic swimmer, has publicly advocated for a stronger stance, stating that the organisation must “protect the female category” . Coventry, who was elected in June, previously vowed to introduce a blanket ban as part of her election campaign . The reported move follows a presentation to IOC members by the committee’s medical and scientific director, Dr. Jane Thornton, a former Canadian Olympic rower . Sources familiar with the closed-door briefing indicated that the scientific review concluded that athletes assigned male at birth retain “permanent physical advantages” even after undergoing hormone-lowering treatments . The IOC has officially maintained that a working group is continuing its discussions and that “no decisions have been taken yet” . The proposed policy would create a uniform, global rule for the Olympics, replacing the current non-binding framework that delegates decision-making to individual International Federations (IFs) .

A Decades-Long Evolution of Eligibility

The IOC’s approach to the participation of transgender athletes has undergone three major shifts since the turn of the century, moving from a highly medicalised model to a rights-based framework, and now back towards exclusion . The first formal policy, known as the Stockholm Consensus, was convened in 2003 and approved in 2004, allowing transgender athletes to compete in the Athens Games . This consensus required male-to-female (MTF) athletes to have completed surgical anatomical changes, including a gonadectomy, obtained legal recognition of their assigned sex, and undergone at least two years of verifiable hormonal therapy . The policy was criticised by human rights advocates for its invasive and expensive surgical requirements . A significant revision occurred in 2015, which removed the requirement for sex reassignment surgery . The new guidelines, adopted after a meeting in Lausanne, instead focused on hormonal criteria . Under the 2015 policy, MTF athletes were required to demonstrate that their total testosterone level in serum had been below 10 nanomoles per litre (nmol/L) for at least 12 months prior to their first competition, and that this level was maintained throughout their eligibility . This framework was the one under which New Zealand weightlifter Laurel Hubbard became the first openly transgender woman to compete at the Olympic Games in Tokyo 2020 (held in 2021) . Hubbard’s participation, though ending without a successful lift, brought the issue into the global spotlight and intensified the debate over fairness . The third major policy shift came in November 2021 with the release of the Framework on Fairness, Inclusion and Non-Discrimination on the Basis of Gender Identity and Sex Variations . This non-binding document was the result of a two-year consultation process and explicitly moved away from the previous focus on testosterone levels . The 2021 Framework established ten principles, including 'Inclusion,' 'Non-discrimination,' and 'No presumption of advantage,' placing the burden of proof on individual International Federations to determine if a 'disproportionate competitive advantage' existed in their specific sport . The reported move towards a blanket ban represents a complete abandonment of the 2021 Framework’s core principles of non-discrimination and no presumption of advantage .

The Scientific Divide on Permanent Advantage

The central argument driving the reported policy reversal is the claim that biological advantages gained through male puberty are not fully mitigated by testosterone suppression . Proponents of the ban cite scientific evidence suggesting that even after years of hormone therapy, transgender women retain physiological advantages over cisgender women . These advantages are often attributed to skeletal structure, such as greater height and bone density, larger lung capacity, and muscle memory, which are established during male puberty and are not fully reversible . Research supporting this view indicates that while hormone therapy can reduce muscle mass by approximately 5 to 10 per cent after one to two years, values for strength and lean body mass may still remain above those observed in cisgender women, even after 36 months of treatment . The difference in world records between male and female categories in strength-related sports can be as high as 10 to 30 per cent, suggesting that a small retained advantage could be decisive at the elite level . Conversely, scientific literature supporting inclusion argues that the competitive advantage is either heavily reduced or eliminated after gender-affirming hormone therapy (GAHT) . One cross-sectional study, which was the first to be funded by the IOC on the subject, found that transgender women’s bone density was equivalent to that of cisgender women . Furthermore, this research suggested that relative percentages of muscle mass and fat mass, as well as VO2 peak corrected for lean mass, were no different to cisgender women after years of GAHT . Other studies on non-athletic transgender women have shown that physical performance, as measured by running time, approached that of cisgender women after two years of GAHT . The scientific debate is complicated by the limited number of studies involving elite, trained transgender athletes, forcing policy-makers to rely on data from non-athletic populations . The IOC’s reported decision to move towards a blanket ban suggests that the committee’s new leadership has chosen to prioritise the scientific evidence supporting the retention of advantage, aligning with the principle of 'fairness' over 'inclusion' .

The Flashpoint of Paris 2024

The debate over eligibility was dramatically intensified by the controversy surrounding Algerian boxer Imane Khelif and Chinese Taipei’s Lin Yu-ting at the Paris 2024 Olympics . Both athletes, who are not transgender women but have Differences of Sex Development (DSD), had previously been disqualified by the International Boxing Association (IBA) from the 2023 World Championships for failing a gender eligibility test based on XY chromosomes . The IOC, which was overseeing the boxing tournament due to the IBA’s expulsion over governance issues, cleared both athletes to compete, stating that the IBA’s disqualifications were carried out without due process . The controversy escalated when Khelif’s first opponent, Italian boxer Angela Carini, withdrew from the bout after just 46 seconds, later claiming she had “never felt a punch like this” . The incident sparked widespread media speculation and online abuse, with many public figures incorrectly suggesting Khelif was transgender . Khelif, who went on to win the gold medal, made an impassioned statement, declaring, “I was born a girl, I grew up a girl, I studied as a girl and I fought like a girl,” and pleaded for an end to bullying . The high-profile nature of the boxing row, which occurred under the IOC’s 2021 Framework, served as a critical flashpoint, providing political momentum for those advocating for a return to stricter, biologically-based eligibility rules . IOC President Kirsty Coventry specifically cited the cases of Khelif and Lin as moments for “deeper reflection” on the issue .

The Political and Human Rights Backlash

The reported move towards a blanket ban has drawn immediate and severe condemnation from human rights and LGBTQ+ advocacy groups . Organisations have warned that the policy is discriminatory, arguing that it conflates transgender women and DSD athletes, and that blanket bans “erase identities and deny opportunities” . A global coalition of groups, including Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch, had previously called on the new IOC president to adhere to the 2021 framework’s principles of fairness and inclusion . Critics of the ban argue that the focus on exclusion distracts from more pressing issues in women’s sport, such as unequal pay and professional opportunities . They also point out that transgender women are not dominating sports and that the number of openly transgender Olympians remains extremely small . The policy shift is also occurring in a highly charged political environment . US President Donald Trump, whose administration will oversee the 2028 Los Angeles Games, signed an executive order in February to prevent transgender women from competing in female categories in American sports . Trump vowed that his administration would not allow 'men beat and batter female athletes' at the 2028 Games and threatened to deny visas to transgender athletes attempting to compete . This political pressure from the host nation for the next Summer Olympics is widely seen as a significant factor in the IOC’s decision to abandon its non-binding, inclusion-focused framework for a uniform, restrictive policy . The IOC’s reported decision aligns it with the stricter policies already adopted by other major international federations . World Athletics, led by Sebastian Coe, and World Aquatics (formerly FINA) have already implemented rules that effectively bar transgender women who have gone through male puberty from competing in the female category . The IOC’s move signals a global trend in elite sport towards prioritising biological sex over gender identity in the female category, a trend that is expected to face significant legal challenges on human rights grounds .

Conclusion

The reported decision by the International Olympic Committee to move towards a blanket ban on transgender women in female sports represents a profound ideological and policy retreat from the human rights-based approach adopted just four years prior . The shift is framed by the IOC’s new leadership as a necessary measure to protect the integrity and fairness of the female category, based on a scientific review that asserts the persistence of physical advantages from male puberty . However, the move is a direct response to a confluence of factors: the scientific uncertainty surrounding the full reversal of male-puberty advantages, the intense public and political pressure following controversies like the one at Paris 2024, and the restrictive policies already implemented by powerful international federations . The impending policy will likely solidify a global binary standard in elite sport, one that prioritises biological sex at the expense of gender identity and inclusion . The ultimate consequence will be the effective exclusion of transgender women from the highest level of competition, a decision that will undoubtedly trigger significant legal challenges and further entrench the culture war surrounding gender and sport for the foreseeable future .

References

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  2. IOC eyes 2026 ban on transgender, DSD athletes | The Jerusalem Post

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    Used to confirm the dramatic reversal of previous policy, the role of Dr. Jane Thornton's presentation, and the political pressure from US President Donald Trump.

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    Used to confirm the scientific review's conclusion on retained physiological advantages and the move towards a uniform global policy.

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  19. 2020 Tokyo Olympics: Laurel Hubbard, transgender weightlifter, makes history at Games despite early exit - CBS Sports

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    Used to cite the counter-scientific argument, including the IOC-funded study finding equivalent bone density and no meaningful differences in certain performance metrics compared to cisgender women.

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    Used to cite studies on non-athletic trans women showing physical performance approaching cisgender women's levels after two years of GAHT, but with higher absolute muscle mass.

  29. How does hormone transition in transgender women change body composition, muscle strength and haemoglobin? Systematic review with a focus on the implications for sport participation - PubMed Central

    Used to cite the systematic review concluding that strength, LBM, and muscle area remain above cisgender women's values even after 36 months of hormone therapy.

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    Used to cite Kirsty Coventry's comments on protecting the female category and the reaction from LGBTQ+ federation ILGA World, including their argument that the focus should be on tackling abuse and unequal pay.

  31. Coventry's transgender stance sparks debate - InsideTheGames

    Used to cite Kirsty Coventry's comments on the need for strict rules, her reference to the Khelif/Lin cases for 'deeper reflection,' and the political context of Donald Trump's executive order.